POLITICS
Feb. 2008, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 34-39

Copyright © 2008 Politics. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Which Party Will Hispanics Call Home?

Their Vote Is Fast-Growing, Influential...And up for Grabs.

By Molly Knight Raskin

     It's nearly midnight on Nov. 4, and all evening the vote totals have made the White House race too close to call. Finally, the winner is clear--and, according to strategists, so is the reason for the razor-thin victories in four battleground states: the Hispanic vote.

     While it might sound far-fetched, strategists say this scenario is possible if the 2008 contest is a close one.

     "If it comes down to a state with a large Latino population, then the Hispanic vote could be decisive," says Lionel Sosa, a longtime Hispanic Republican strategist.

     At 47 million, Hispanics comprise 15 percent of the U.S. population, making them the country's largest minority bloc. They are also the fastest-growing group, expected to double by 2030 to almost 30 percent of the population.

     Although Hispanics make up less than 10 percent of the national electorate, their presence at the polls has the potential to grow with them. Between 2000 and 2008, the Hispanic electorate nearly doubled. It could continue on this track over the next decade, with more than half a million Hispanics turning 18--and becoming eligible to vote--every year.

     Even more important is their location on the electoral map. Of die six states President George W Bush won by margins of 5 percent or less in 2004, five have a sizeable Hispanic population: Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico. In all of these states, which are expected to be close again this year, the population of eligible Hispanic voters is larger than the margin of Bush's victory in '04.

     The candidates and their strategists know this. They also know that to win the White House, they need approximately 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. This is a greater challenge for the Republicans, since Hispanics have historic roots in the Democratic Party.

     Still, strategists say the Democrats don't have enough of a hold on the Hispanic vote to take it for granted. At a time when the volatile issues of immigration and the economy are top concerns, courting the Hispanic vote has not only become more important, but also much more complex.

     "In terms of the way Latinos are looking at this election, I don't think one party is ahead of the other yet," says Sosa, who is not currently tied to a campaign. "In fact, I think Latinos are looking less and less at the parties and more at the candidates themselves."

     For the candidates, this opportunity requires an aggressive plan to court Hispanics, who are now perhaps the single most-coveted constituency of the 2008 presidential campaign.

Who Is the Hispanic Voter?

     Hispanics are not reliably Democratic because certain subgroups identify with Republicans, including Evangelicals, fiscal conservatives and family-values voters. They tend to be prolife, against gay marriage and favor conservative fiscal policy.

     Hispanics also are split along geographic lines. With roots in more than a dozen different countries, Hispanic voters break down roughly into three distinguishable groups: Cubans, Dominicans and the largest group, Mexicans. Among these, Cubans are the only group Republicans have consistently held because of the GOP's policy toward Fidel Castro.

     Then there are generational differences. Most older Hispanics are Democrats, largely motivated by the party's push for immigration reform. Some in the second generation--one of the most Evangelical--splinter off to the Republicans, identifying with their focus on the family. Young Hispanics, who make up the majority of the population, lean Democratic but boast the highest number of undecided voters.

     Finally, there are religious divides. Evangelical Latinos are twice as likely as those who are Catholic to identify with the Republican Party.

     Although these factors make Hispanics difficult to court, they are more than eager to be courted.

     The evidence is in Hispanic mobilization efforts nationwide. One of the largest is Ya Es Hora, Ve y Vota! (It's Time, Go Vote!) The campaign is led by Mi Familia Vota, an arm of the Service Employees International Union, the National Association of Latino Elected Officials and the National Council of La Raza. It works with local organizations to help Hispanic residents fill out citizenship applications and help Hispanic citizens register to vote.

     Ya Es Hora's efforts, and those of other naturalization campaigns, appear to be paying off. Officials with the U.S. Bureau of Citizens and Immigration Services reported that by August of last year, they had been flooded with almost 1 million new citizenship applications from Latinos, about double the amount they received in 2006.

     That's a huge number of potential voters. Which way will the independents among them swing? If history is any guide, it's impossible to know. Bush's former chief strategist, Karl Rove, targeted Hispanics in the 2004 presidential campaign, and helped win over a record number of these voters for a Republican candidate-about 40 percent. To do so, the party played up faith and family, with a strong dose of entrepreneurial spirit. And days before the election, Bush used Spanish ads to rally Miami's Cuban-American population, which helped produce his 537-vote victory in the state.

     During his two terms, Bush endorsed bilingual education and championed an immigration bill that would provide a path to citizenship for the country's illegal immigrants. But he is not the only Republican to have success attracting Hispanic voters. Thirty-two percent of the Hispanic vote went to Ronald Reagan in 1984. More recently, in 2002, 60 percent of Hispanics cast their ballots for Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 44 percent for former New York Gov. George E. Pataki and 46 percent for former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens--all Republicans. And in 2006, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger managed to pull in 40 percent of the Hispanic vote-quite an achievement in a year otherwise marked by a huge Republican slide in Hispanic support.

     Yet because of the Republican-led effort in Congress to defeat comprehensive immigration reform, the party took just 26 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 2006 midterm elections, down from 44 percent in 2004.

     Hispanics' displeasure with the Republican Party shows no sign of abating. A December poll by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center found that 57 percent of Hispanic voters currently identify with Democrats, compared with only 23 percent who align with Republicans-in large part because of the parties' different stands on immigration.

     How will the 2008 candidates court the Hispanic vote? For both parties, there's one answer: aggressively.

Winning the Hispanic Vote

     Although Hispanic outreach has long been a part of presidential campaigns, strategists say 2008 marks one of the most organized efforts in election history.

     "The days when a candidate was able to show up in September and try to win over Hispanic voters are long gone," says Arturo Vargas, executive director of NALEO. "It's no longer a shot-in-the-dark effort, but a long-term, strategic one to reach out and engage these voters."

     Top-tier candidates in both parties have hired big-name Hispanic consultants, built Spanish-language web sites, invested in Spanish campaign ads and stumped in densely Hispanic cities.

     While some laud their efforts, others say they need to do more.

     "At this point, I've not seen a candidate on either side going above and beyond to reach out in new and different ways to Hispanic voters," says Lindsay Daniels, coordinator of the Latino Empowerment Advocacy Project for La Raza. "I'm hopeful that this will change as we get closer to the general election."

     If any Democratic candidate has made significant headway with Hispanics, it's Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Pew Center poll showed 60 percent of registered Hispanic voters who identify themselves as Democrats have a favorable view of Clinton.

     Building on her husband's popularity with Hispanics, Clinton has carried out a targeted campaign for their support, hiring Sergio Bendixen, one of the top Hispanic pollsters, and launching MyGrito.com (MyCry), a Spanish social-networking web site.

     The Pew poll showed that the other front-running Democrats have made less of an impression on Hispanics. Nearly half said they've never heard of Sen. Barack Obama and know little about former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who is betting on his antipoverty message to win a significant slice of the Hispanic vote. Both candidates have to hope their profile among Hispanics is changing now that the primaries are under way.

     On the Republican side, polls show Rudy Giuliani--who has hinted at supporting a path to legalization--leading among Hispanic Republicans, followed by Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Despite his win in Iowa, Mike Huckabee remains relatively obscure to Hispanic voters and has little chance at courting them with his plan to send all 12 million illegal immigrants home.

     Of the GOP candidates, Romney is the only one with a Spanish version of his campaign web site. It includes a video of his son Craig, a fluent Spanish speaker, calling his Dad "un hombre de familia, de fe, y de integridad" ("a man of family, faith and integrity"). His efforts have done little, however, to raise his profile among Hispanic voters, mainly because of his vocal opposition to comprehensive immigration reform. He also has pledged to cut federal funds to cities that refuse to comply with immigration laws.

     And while all the Democratic candidates participated in a December debate sponsored by the Spanish-language television network Univision, only one Republican-McCain-accepted an invitation to the network's GOP debate.

Immigration: The Ultimate Wedge

     The immigration debate has done much more than heat up the halls of Congress and the stages of the early presidential debates. It's also become one of the driving forces behind the Hispanic vote.

     Although Hispanics tend to care a lot about education and healthcare, it is the immigration issue that most stirs their emotions. The Pew Center poll found that the majority of Hispanics feel personally affected by the tone of the immigration debate. The survey also found that about half of all Hispanic adults in the U.S. worry that they, a family member or a close friend could be deported.

     "I think immigration is so huge that it will trump every other issue," says Adam Segal, director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University. "Even if it's not a voter's top issue, they will look first at how a candidate stands on it when they are deciding who to support. That's how huge it is."

     How do the candidates stand? All three Democratic frontrunners--Clinton, Obama and Edwards--advocate a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Still, they've all been cautious when it comes to embracing comprehensive immigration reform, mostly out of the fear that they would squander their more moderate support.

     On the Republican side, McCain is the only candidate who favors a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, a position that has cost him a chunk of his conservative base but could garner him Hispanic support if he becomes the Republican nominee.

     Giuliani and Romney have publicly sparred over who is the toughest on immigration, and that stance could cost them both the Hispanic vote, according to some experts.

     "Immigration is the front-and-center reason for declining Republican appeal among the Latino electorate," says Louis DeSipio, associate professor of Latino studies and political science at the University of California Irvine.

     To complicate the issue, there are those Hispanics--a majority of them native-born--who favor tougher enforcement measures. For all the candidates, this means walking a fine line between attracting, or totally alienating, Hispanic voters.

     Frank Guerra, a San Antonio media consultant who worked on Hispanic outreach for Bush's campaigns, says Republicans have to exercise caution on the issue.

     "Undecided Hispanics will be very affected by the tenor of the discourse of the immigration debate," says Guerra. "Even Hispanics who agree with Republican positions from a policy standpoint might be turned off because of the tenor of the conversation. That's a risk for Republican candidates."

Multi-Issue Voters

     Despite the noise over immigration, this is far from the only concern of Hispanics. In fact, polls have shown there are several issues that Hispanic voters believe candidates need to talk about even more than immigration:

     Education--National polls show almost unanimous Hispanic support for improving public education and for this issue to be a priority for the next president. Concerns include the high dropout rate among Hispanic students and the poor quality of public schools.

     Healthcare--Hispanics are almost equally concerned with access to healthcare. Out of all minorities, Hispanics are the most likely to be without health insurance. That's mainly because they are more likely to be self-employed, take jobs without health benefits or change jobs.

     The Economy--Hispanics are fast catching up with the nation's middle class, particularly in the business arena. There are nearly 2 million Hispanic-owned businesses in the United States, and these businesses are increasing in number at a rate nearly three times the national average. "Hispanics have traditionally been caretakers at home, and now they are caretakers of businesses," says Michael Barrera, president of the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. "This means they are also opinion leaders in their communities, and they care a lot about opportunity."

     Housing--One of the greatest economic concerns for Hispanics is housing. Of the hundreds of thousands of homeowners hit by the sub-prime mortgage crisis, many are Hispanic. According to the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, foreclosures in this community will reach $24.8 billion this year.

     Could economic concerns like the housing crisis trump values in this election? Timothy Sandos, president of NAH-REP, thinks so. "For the Hispanic family, the American dream is homeownership," he says. "It's the cornerstone of wealth and creates the economic stability that is key to economic equality for Hispanics."

Looking Ahead

     Strategists and political insiders agree that making long-term predictions about the Hispanic vote is impossible. Even if Republican rhetoric on immigration helps put a Democrat in the White House this year, that edge could disappear if the issue does.

     "I think the Hispanic vote will always be up for grabs," says consultant Frank Guerra. "Hispanic voters go into elections undecided not because they are disinterested, but because they are discerning."

     Is there a natural home for Hispanic voters? In the decades to come, most analysts say the majority will probably remain Democrats. Still, they say it's unlikely that they will ever develop the reliably one-party allegiance of African-Americans.

     And as their numbers grow, these discerning Hispanic voters can be sure of one thing: their importance.

     "Success in business means concentrating not on just the next quarter but the next century," Guerra says. "That's how politicians have to look at the Hispanic vote-as a market they have to pay attention to."


     Part of the push to win Hispanic votes is to make sure Latino supporters understand the primary and caucus systems. Here Hispanic voters get a primer on the Iowa caucuses at Barack Obama's campaign headquarters in Des Moines.

Clout Across the Country

Here are the top ten states where the Hispanic vote has plenty of impact

     1. New Mexico

     32.5% of Hispanics among all registered voters
     259,000 Number of registered Hispanic voters
     56.1% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     5 Total electoral votes

     2. Texas

     21.7% Hispanics of all registered voters
     2,035,000 registered Hispanic voters
     60.0% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     34 electoral votes

     3. Arizona

     16.4% Hispanics of all registered voters
     331,000 registered Hispanic voters
     49.3% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     10 electoral votes

     4. California

     14.6% Hispanics of all registered voters
     2,032,000 registered Hispanic voters
     55.0% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     55 electoral votes

     5. Florida

     12.0% Hispanics of all registered voters
     857,000 registered Hispanic voters
     63.4% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     27 electoral votes

     6. Colorado

     10.7% Hispanics of all registered voters
     213,000 registered Hispanic voters
     57.0% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     9 electoral votes

     7. New York

     7.3% Hispanics of all registered voters
     606,000 registered Hispanic voters
     56.0% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     31 electoral votes

     8. Nevada

     7.1% Hispanics of all registered voters
     59,000 registered Hispanic voters
     47.2% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     5 electoral votes

     9. New Jersey

     5.4% Hispanics of all registered voters
     218,000 registered Hispanic voters
     61.4% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     15 electoral votes

     10. Illinois

     4.6% Hispanics of all registered voters
     267,000 registered Hispanic voters
     65.5% of eligible Hispanic voters registered
     21 electoral votes

--Lauren Zingarelli

(Source: Univision, based on the 2004 general election)

A Winning Strategy

     How can candidates secure their share of the Hispanic vote in 2008 and beyond? Interviews with a dozen top Hispanic experts--including strategists, consultants, academics and pollsters--provided the following tips:

     What Republicans Can Do...

     • Avoid immigration rhetoric that offends Hispanic immigrants and makes them feel as if they are under attack.

     • Be sure to distinguish between legal and illegal immigrants.

     • Include more Hispanics at top levels of campaign staff.

     • Use family, faith and fiscal policy to connect with the Hispanic community.

     • When talking about national security and the need to secure the borders, remember that Hispanic citizens are fiercely patriotic-and, like all Americans, they want to keep the country safe.

     What Democrats Can Do...

     • Do not rely, as Sen. John Kerry did, on independent 527 groups to motivate Hispanic voters. Keep in mind that an effective candidate must sell him or herself to all Hispanics.

     • Take leadership on comprehensive immigration reform.

     • Talk more about values, remembering that Hispanics care deeply about family and faith.

     • Establish connections with workers' unions by attending meetings and campaigning during shift changes in areas that are largely Hispanic. These groups are powerful and tend to vote as a bloc.

     What Both Parties Can Do...

     • Remember that Hispanics are not single-issue voters. They care as much about education, healthcare, crime, the Iraq War and the economy as they do about immigration.

     • Hispanic voters value personal relationships based on mutual trust. So visit Hispanic neighborhoods, meet them in coffee shops and connect directly with Hispanic outreach groups.

     • Learn to speak Spanish.

     • Accept invitations to appear at Hispanic-sponsored events, like the Univision debate and the annual NALEO conference, the nation's largest gathering of Hispanic elected officials.